Tom O'Neil's Inside Track

Oscar Best Picture race: ‘Roma’ and ‘A Star Is Born’ are tied for lead with 7/1 odds

Technically, “Roma” has more Oscar Experts at Gold Derby predicting it to win Best Picture (9) than “A Star Is Born” (7), but the films are tied for first place with 7/1 odds because the Bradley Cooper/ Lady Gaga musical is consistently ranked a bit higher among all 20 Oscarologists projecting 8 to 10 nominees in the category.

Only one other flick gets ranked first, too: “First Man” (15/2 odds) has support of four pundits. See all of the latest Best Picture rankings by our 20 Experts.

“Roma,” Alfonso Cauron‘s artsy-indie tribute to his childhood in Mexico, has been in a virtual tie with “A Star Is Born” for the past month while Gold Derby’s Experts made frequent changes that usually resulted in the rival films retaining equal numbers of Experts predicting them to prevail, or at least giving them equal odds.

Over the past month, “Green Book” and “The Favourite” climbed up to four and fifth places after receiving standing ovations and wild cheers at the Toronto Film Festival, bumping “If Beale Street Could Talk” and “BlacKkKlansman” down to sixth and seven rungs. Meantime, throughout it all,, “Black Panther has deftly and coolly held on in seventh place.

The nine Oscarologists riding “Roma” in the Best Picture race: Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Susan Wloszczyna and Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Andrea Mandell (USA Today), Claudia Puig (KPCC), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Scott Mantz (Collider) and Tariq Khan (Fox TV).

Tom O'Neil's Inside Track
Editor and President Tom O'Neil founded Gold Derby in 2000.
Tom's Latest Updated Predictions
Oscars Nominations 2019
( Best Picture )
Bet Points: 100
  • 1
    A Star Is Born
    A Star Is Born
    10/1
  • 2
    Green Book
    Green Book
    42/1
  • 3
    Roma
    Roma
    10/1
  • 4
    The Favourite
    The Favourite
    23/2
  • 5
    Black Panther
    Black Panther
    20/1
  • 6
    First Man
    First Man
    15/2
  • 7
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    100/1
  • 8
    Vice
    Vice
    18/1
  • 9
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    11/1
  • 10
    BlacKKKlansman
    BlacKkKlansman
    7/1
  • Updated on: 15 Oct 18, 22:56 pm PT